US House — District 11 — Head to Head

Based on data as of 2026-11-04 · General mode · Dashboard

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District projection: each county's remaining ballots are split among the districts in it in proportion to the votes each has counted there so far. Where a district takes in a whole county no split is needed; where a county is divided, this assumes its remaining ballots divide like its counted ones, so the band is wider than statewide. The counties below are this district's part of each county.

1st vs 2nd

Wiener favored

Scott Wiener

55.5%

97,876 votes now

→ 55.5% proj · 174,816

Connie Chan

44.5%

78,594 votes now

→ 44.5% proj · 140,376

Current gap

19,282 votes

Projected remaining

138,722 votes

Chan must net

+13.9% of remaining

Recent-trend net (model)

-10.9%

Projected margin

Wiener +10.9 ± 4.9 pts

Falling short: at the recent trend Chan nets -10.9%, below the +13.9% needed to catch up.

What the count added · to Nov 4, 5:47 PM PT

Window	Votes	Wiener	Chan	Chan net
Latest update	18,318	55.9%	44.1%	-2,152-11.7%
Last 24 hours1 county	176,470	55.5%	44.5%	-19,282-10.9%
All counted	176,470	55.5%	44.5%	-19,282-10.9%

Net share is Chan's votes minus Wiener's, as a share of the window's votes. Green when it meets the +13.9% Chan needs on the remaining vote.

Path to catch up

What Chan needs from the remaining vote to overtake Wiener.

Chan trails by 19,282; nets -15,157 at the recent pace — short by 34,439 votes. Allocated below.

Allocate by

by remaining x headroom to 50% (Chan's best county, 45%, plus 5 pts)

County	Est. remaining	Pace net (Chan)	Req. add’l votes	Req. add’l margin
San Francisco	138,722	-15,157	+34,439	+24.8 pts

Scenario, not a forecast — the required lift depends on the movability assumption. All counties with remaining vote; scroll and sort by any column.

Where the remaining vote is

Counties with remaining ballots, with the current and blend-projected vote margin (leader − challenger) for each matchup. A negative margin in a high-remaining county is where the trailing candidate can gain. Click any column to sort.

County	Est. remaining	Wiener–Chan
		Now	Proj.
San Francisco	138,722	+19,282	+34,439