Insurance Commissioner — Head to Head
Based on data as of 2026-11-04 · General mode
1st vs 2nd
Kim favoredJane Kim
52.2%
3,601,211 votes now
→ 52.7% proj · 6,277,252
vs
Ben Allen
47.8%
3,302,761 votes now
→ 47.3% proj · 5,640,410
Current gap
298,450 votes
Projected remaining
5,013,690 votes
Allen must net
+6.0% of remaining
Recent-trend net (model)
-7.9%
Projected margin
Kim +5.3 ± 3.1 pts
Falling short: at the recent trend Allen nets -7.9%, below the +6.0% needed to catch up.
What the count added · to Nov 4, 5:47 PM PT
| Window | Votes | Kim | Allen | Allen net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest update5 counties | 4,333 | 51.5% | 48.5% | -131-3.0% |
| Last hour10 counties | 105,164 | 53.7% | 46.3% | -7,762-7.4% |
| Last 24 hours58 counties | 6,903,972 | 52.2% | 47.8% | -298,450-4.3% |
| All counted | 6,903,972 | 52.2% | 47.8% | -298,450-4.3% |
Net share is Allen's votes minus Kim's, as a share of the window's votes. Green when it meets the +6.0% Allen needs on the remaining vote.
Path to catch up
What Allen needs from the remaining vote to overtake Kim.
Allen trails by 298,450; nets -393,763 at the recent pace — short by 692,213 votes. Allocated below.
Allocate byby remaining x headroom to 62% (Allen's best county, 57%, plus 5 pts)
| County | Est. remaining | Pace net (Allen) | Req. add’l votes | Req. add’l margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 1,040,082 | -183,269 | +134,717 | +13.0 pts |
| San Diego | 522,654 | -32,177 | +67,946 | +13.0 pts |
| Sacramento | 327,657 | -24,015 | +44,551 | +13.6 pts |
| Riverside | 473,481 | -19,385 | +42,724 | +9.0 pts |
| San Bernardino | 292,742 | -21,856 | +39,568 | +13.5 pts |
| Santa Clara | 347,456 | -10,264 | +39,229 | +11.3 pts |
| Alameda | 296,272 | -10,185 | +34,027 | +11.5 pts |
| Orange | 375,798 | -9,637 | +26,748 | +7.1 pts |
| San Mateo | 148,793 | -18,563 | +23,453 | +15.8 pts |
| Fresno | 142,121 | -16,545 | +22,383 | +15.7 pts |
| Contra Costa | 207,243 | +3,467 | +18,834 | +9.1 pts |
| San Francisco | 162,187 | -11,531 | +18,602 | +11.5 pts |
| San Joaquin | 110,907 | -12,742 | +17,209 | +15.5 pts |
| Kern | 113,133 | -8,687 | +15,601 | +13.8 pts |
| Sonoma | 140,708 | +632 | +13,633 | +9.7 pts |
| Santa Barbara | 74,980 | -5,460 | +10,108 | +13.5 pts |
| Solano | 55,571 | -12,315 | +9,795 | +17.6 pts |
| Placer | 88,051 | +366 | +8,520 | +9.7 pts |
| Stanislaus | 82,595 | -143 | +8,250 | +10.0 pts |
| Ventura | 154,532 | +16,211 | +7,291 | +4.7 pts |
| Tulare | 56,637 | -2,641 | +6,944 | +12.3 pts |
| Shasta | 46,751 | -2,461 | +6,006 | +12.8 pts |
| Santa Cruz | 52,110 | -1,014 | +5,631 | +10.8 pts |
| San Luis Obispo | 71,200 | +2,897 | +5,539 | +7.8 pts |
| El Dorado | 38,539 | -3,041 | +5,516 | +14.3 pts |
| Merced | 30,611 | -4,704 | +5,349 | +17.5 pts |
| Butte | 35,032 | -3,348 | +5,203 | +14.9 pts |
| Yolo | 38,763 | -2,451 | +4,999 | +12.9 pts |
| Humboldt | 36,309 | -2,685 | +4,902 | +13.5 pts |
| Monterey | 49,490 | +2,032 | +3,948 | +8.0 pts |
| Sutter | 21,537 | -2,301 | +3,351 | +15.6 pts |
| San Benito | 17,606 | -2,901 | +3,129 | +17.8 pts |
| Yuba | 18,462 | -2,063 | +2,951 | +16.0 pts |
| Marin | 70,269 | +8,520 | +2,885 | +4.1 pts |
| Mendocino | 18,658 | -1,918 | +2,785 | +14.9 pts |
| Napa | 41,438 | +2,823 | +2,722 | +6.6 pts |
| Madera | 19,108 | -1,393 | +2,619 | +13.7 pts |
| Nevada | 29,400 | +1,703 | +2,111 | +7.2 pts |
| Imperial | 20,815 | -639 | +1,980 | +9.5 pts |
| Kings | 8,190 | -1,052 | +1,340 | +16.4 pts |
| Tehama | 10,641 | -143 | +1,131 | +10.6 pts |
| Siskiyou | 6,923 | -726 | +1,083 | +15.6 pts |
| Lake | 16,547 | +1,131 | +1,055 | +6.4 pts |
| Calaveras | 7,880 | -267 | +929 | +11.8 pts |
| Amador | 5,450 | -549 | +857 | +15.7 pts |
| Lassen | 4,875 | -475 | +770 | +15.8 pts |
| Glenn | 5,730 | -33 | +585 | +10.2 pts |
| Plumas | 2,898 | -267 | +436 | +15.0 pts |
| Inyo | 3,942 | +7 | +387 | +9.8 pts |
| Trinity | 2,417 | -279 | +384 | +15.9 pts |
| Tuolumne | 8,042 | +666 | +371 | +4.6 pts |
| Colusa | 3,074 | -57 | +336 | +10.9 pts |
| Del Norte | 4,010 | +154 | +313 | +7.8 pts |
| Mariposa | 1,984 | -117 | +261 | +13.2 pts |
| Modoc | 1,196 | -34 | +139 | +11.6 pts |
| Mono | 427 | -36 | +48 | +11.3 pts |
| Sierra | 203 | +1 | +20 | +9.7 pts |
| Alpine | 100 | -4 | +12 | +12.0 pts |
Scenario, not a forecast — the required lift depends on the movability assumption. All counties with remaining vote; scroll and sort by any column.
Where the remaining vote is
Counties with remaining ballots, with the current and blend-projected vote margin (leader − challenger) for each matchup. A negative margin in a high-remaining county is where the trailing candidate can gain. Click any column to sort.
| County | Est. remaining | Kim–Allen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Proj. | ||
| Los Angeles | 1,040,082 | +146,774 | +295,151 |
| San Diego | 522,654 | +47,203 | +79,380 |
| Riverside | 473,481 | -6,485 | +4,565 |
| Orange | 375,798 | -46,776 | -46,251 |
| Santa Clara | 347,456 | +9,468 | +19,732 |
| Sacramento | 327,657 | +19,892 | +43,907 |
| Alameda | 296,272 | +10,827 | +21,012 |
| San Bernardino | 292,742 | +27,350 | +49,206 |
| Contra Costa | 207,243 | -4,695 | -8,162 |
| San Francisco | 162,187 | +7,086 | +16,829 |
| Ventura | 154,532 | -20,480 | -36,691 |
| San Mateo | 148,793 | +18,811 | +37,374 |
| Fresno | 142,121 | +17,094 | +33,639 |
| Sonoma | 140,708 | -449 | -1,081 |
| Kern | 113,133 | +9,972 | +18,659 |
| San Joaquin | 110,907 | +13,930 | +26,672 |
| Placer | 88,051 | -544 | -910 |
| Stanislaus | 82,595 | +150 | +293 |
| Santa Barbara | 74,980 | +6,521 | +11,981 |
| San Luis Obispo | 71,200 | -2,788 | -5,685 |
| Marin | 70,269 | -8,112 | -16,632 |
| Tulare | 56,637 | +2,891 | +5,532 |
| Solano | 55,571 | +18,763 | +30,131 |
| Santa Cruz | 52,110 | +1,394 | +2,408 |
| Monterey | 49,490 | -3,289 | -5,321 |
| Shasta | 46,751 | +1,675 | +4,136 |
| Napa | 41,438 | -1,315 | -4,138 |
| Yolo | 38,763 | +2,941 | +5,392 |
| El Dorado | 38,539 | +5,117 | +8,158 |
| Humboldt | 36,309 | +1,591 | +4,276 |
| Butte | 35,032 | +5,045 | +8,393 |
| Merced | 30,611 | +6,458 | +11,162 |
| Nevada | 29,400 | -1,688 | -3,391 |
| Sutter | 21,537 | +1,465 | +3,766 |
| Imperial | 20,815 | -179 | +217 |
| Madera | 19,108 | +2,159 | +3,552 |
| Mendocino | 18,658 | +1,810 | +3,728 |
| Yuba | 18,462 | +1,006 | +3,069 |
| San Benito | 17,606 | +1,223 | +4,124 |
| Lake | 16,547 | -530 | -1,661 |
| Tehama | 10,641 | +177 | +320 |
| Kings | 8,190 | +3,504 | +4,556 |
| Tuolumne | 8,042 | -1,912 | -2,625 |
| Calaveras | 7,880 | +562 | +829 |
| Siskiyou | 6,923 | +1,305 | +2,031 |
| Glenn | 5,730 | +22 | +55 |
| Amador | 5,450 | +1,566 | +2,115 |
| Lassen | 4,875 | +543 | +1,018 |
| Del Norte | 4,010 | -213 | -367 |
| Inyo | 3,942 | -7 | -14 |
| Colusa | 3,074 | +67 | +124 |
| Plumas | 2,898 | +605 | +872 |
| Trinity | 2,417 | +320 | +599 |
| Mariposa | 1,984 | +407 | +524 |
| Modoc | 1,196 | +71 | +105 |
| Mono | 427 | +130 | +159 |
| Sierra | 203 | -6 | -7 |
| Alpine | 100 | +23 | +27 |