Insurance Commissioner — Outstanding Ballot Estimates
Based on data as of 2026-11-04
Projection method
Remaining ballots are projected with a poll-calibrated demographic model: each candidate's support rate by demographic is applied to the estimated remaining-ballot pool — which is sized from the official CA SOS unprocessed count where available and otherwise falls back to the selected voter universe — then scaled by each county's contest participation so projected vote counts reflect undervotes. Projected shares are the reliable signal; projected counts sit below projected turnout by the undervote. Coverage cases (A/B/C/D) reflect the PRET demographic data available per county. Switch the dashboard's Recent trend option to project remaining ballots by each county's recent counting momentum instead of the demographic model.
Projected Finals (Voter Universe 26G7 Turnout)
pool: 5,964,227 · full breakdown →Jane Kim
6,277,252
52.7% ± 2.2
+2,676,041 est.
Ben Allen
5,640,410
47.3% ± 2.2
+2,337,649 est.
Projected margin Kim +5.3 ± 3.1 pts · lead exceeds band · ~90% interval
| County | Outstanding | % Counted | Jane Kim(26G7 · blend) | Ben Allen | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 1,040,082 | 68.7% | 1,584,642 | 1,289,491 | Weights |
| San Diego | 522,654 | 59.5% | 565,215 | 485,835 | PRET partial |
| Riverside | 473,481 | 43.6% | 351,016 | 346,451 | PRET full |
| Orange | 375,798 | 69.3% | 475,040 | 521,291 | Weights |
| Santa Clara | 347,456 | 48.0% | 301,079 | 281,347 | PRET full |
| Sacramento | 327,657 | 45.3% | 265,721 | 221,814 | PRET full |
| Alameda | 296,272 | 51.5% | 282,547 | 261,535 | Weights |
| San Bernardino | 292,742 | 55.6% | 303,869 | 254,663 | Weights |
| Contra Costa | 207,243 | 57.5% | 202,376 | 210,538 | Weights |
| San Francisco | 162,187 | 56.0% | 173,894 | 157,065 | Weights |
| Ventura | 154,532 | 55.8% | 127,018 | 163,709 | Weights |
| San Mateo | 148,793 | 50.3% | 149,550 | 112,176 | PRET full |
| Fresno | 142,121 | 50.8% | 134,865 | 101,226 | PRET partial |
| Sonoma | 140,708 | 41.5% | 104,800 | 105,881 | PRET full |
| Kern | 113,133 | 53.4% | 107,784 | 89,125 | PRET partial |
| San Joaquin | 110,907 | 52.2% | 110,807 | 84,135 | PRET partial |
| Placer | 88,051 | 59.8% | 83,072 | 83,982 | PRET partial |
| Stanislaus | 82,595 | 51.3% | 67,419 | 67,126 | PRET partial |
| Santa Barbara | 74,980 | 54.4% | 74,669 | 62,688 | PRET partial |
| San Luis Obispo | 71,200 | 49.0% | 52,189 | 57,874 | PRET partial |
| Marin | 70,269 | 48.8% | 50,609 | 67,241 | PRET full |
| Tulare | 56,637 | 52.3% | 50,856 | 45,324 | PRET partial |
| Solano | 55,571 | 67.2% | 89,250 | 59,119 | Weights |
| Santa Cruz | 52,110 | 57.9% | 55,746 | 53,338 | Weights |
| Monterey | 49,490 | 61.8% | 54,149 | 59,470 | Weights |
| Shasta | 46,751 | 40.5% | 30,868 | 26,732 | PRET partial |
| Napa | 41,438 | 31.8% | 23,438 | 27,576 | PRET full |
| Yolo | 38,763 | 54.5% | 39,631 | 34,239 | PRET partial |
| El Dorado | 38,539 | 62.7% | 42,024 | 33,866 | PRET partial |
| Humboldt | 36,309 | 37.2% | 26,523 | 22,247 | PRET full |
| Butte | 35,032 | 60.1% | 38,983 | 30,590 | PRET partial |
| Merced | 30,611 | 57.9% | 35,828 | 24,666 | PRET partial |
| Nevada | 29,400 | 49.8% | 23,889 | 27,280 | PRET full |
| Sutter | 21,537 | 38.9% | 15,534 | 11,768 | PRET full |
| Imperial | 20,815 | 51.2% | 18,591 | 18,374 | Weights |
| Madera | 19,108 | 60.8% | 20,925 | 17,373 | PRET partial |
| Mendocino | 18,658 | 48.6% | 17,091 | 13,363 | PRET full |
| Yuba | 18,462 | 32.8% | 11,892 | 8,823 | PRET partial |
| San Benito | 17,606 | 29.7% | 12,818 | 8,694 | PRET full |
| Lake | 16,547 | 31.9% | 8,845 | 10,506 | PRET full |
| Tehama | 10,641 | 55.3% | 9,138 | 8,818 | PRET partial |
| Kings | 8,190 | 76.9% | 16,750 | 12,194 | Weights |
| Tuolumne | 8,042 | 69.9% | 9,312 | 11,937 | Weights |
| Calaveras | 7,880 | 67.8% | 9,397 | 8,568 | PRET partial |
| Siskiyou | 6,923 | 64.2% | 8,280 | 6,249 | PRET partial |
| Glenn | 5,730 | 39.7% | 3,704 | 3,649 | PRET partial |
| Amador | 5,450 | 74.0% | 8,508 | 6,393 | Weights |
| Lassen | 4,875 | 53.4% | 4,054 | 3,036 | PRET partial |
| Del Norte | 4,010 | 58.0% | 3,403 | 3,770 | PRET partial |
| Inyo | 3,942 | 51.8% | 2,956 | 2,970 | PRET partial |
| Colusa | 3,074 | 53.7% | 2,508 | 2,384 | PRET partial |
| Plumas | 2,898 | 69.4% | 3,919 | 3,047 | PRET full |
| Trinity | 2,417 | 53.4% | 2,354 | 1,755 | PRET partial |
| Mariposa | 1,984 | 77.7% | 3,556 | 3,032 | PRET partial |
| Modoc | 1,196 | 67.2% | 1,297 | 1,192 | Weights |
| Mono | 427 | 92.1% | 2,165 | 2,006 | Weights |
| Sierra | 203 | 87.9% | 607 | 614 | PRET partial |
| Alpine | 100 | 85.0% | 282 | 255 | Weights |